The Real Clear Politics poll of polls currently has Obama leading by just over 4%. But, even before adjusting for the Bradley Effect, Obama's supposed lead is basically within the margin of error, meaning that the candidates are effectively tied. And, if we account for the Bradley Effect by reducing Obama's numbers by two to five percent, and increasing McCain's by the same, McCain would appear to have a slight lead.
By all accounts, and if history is any guide, Obama should be crushing McCain. So, why isn't he?