Sean King

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Knoxville, Tennessee, United States

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Deflation

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:
Fed watchers say Mr Bernanke and his close allies at the Board in Washington are worried by signs that the US recovery is running out of steam. The ECRI leading indicator published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute has collapsed to a 45-week low of -5.7 in the most precipitous slide for half a century. Such a reading typically portends contraction within three months or so.

Key members of the five-man Board are quietly mulling a fresh burst of asset purchases, if necessary by pushing the Fed's balance sheet from $2.4 trillion (£1.6 trillion) to uncharted levels of $5 trillion. But they are certain to face intense scepticism from regional hardliners. The dispute has echoes of the early 1930s when the Chicago Fed stymied rescue efforts.

"We're heading towards a double-dip recession," said Chris Whalen, a former Fed official and now head of Institutional Risk Analystics. "The party is over from fiscal support. These hard-money men are fighting the last war: they don't recognise that money velocity has slowed and we are going into deflation. The only default option left is to crank up the printing presses again."


It won't work, at least not until deflation has run its course. Printing money does not spur growth if the excess liquidity is just used to pay down debt or purchase treasuries rather than being placed at risk. And, the factors that cause us to choose safety over risk--higher taxes, increased regulation, aging demographics, unprecedented levels of debt, and a declining social mood--will not soon change.

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